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2025 Biannual Office Market Report
Download the 2025 Biannual Office Market Report
Five years after COVID reshaped the office market, the data tells a more complicated story than the headlines suggest. Job openings fell 26.8% in a single year. Quality-adjusted rents only crossed back above 2019 levels within the last five quarters. And more than 32% of all office leases roll by year-end 2028.
CompStak’s Q4 2025 Biannual Office Market Report cuts through the noise with lease-level data and the Columbia-CompStak Rent Index (CCRI) across 11 major U.S. gateway markets: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Phoenix, Los Angeles, the Bay Area, and San Francisco.
Key insights include:
- Rents only just crossed back above 2019: The CCRI shows the national office rent is just 7.8% above the pre-COVID level, and only surpassed that benchmark within the last five quarters.
- Recovery is uneven by market: Dallas-Fort Worth and Boston are 16.2% and 13.3% above pre-COVID rent levels, while San Francisco is still 17.1% below.
- A major rollover window is opening: More than 32% of all office leases expire by year-end 2028, with the largest upside concentrated in Phoenix Class A (+20.5%) and NYC Class B (+20.1%).
- TAMI hits a post-COVID high: TAMI’s share of activity posted its largest year-over-year gain since 2020, with AI-focused firms driving more than 44% of TAMI activity in the Bay Area.
- Concessions are easing, but still elevated: Incentives remain historically high, led by Washington, D.C. and Chicago, with notable increases in New York and San Francisco since 2019.