CompStat: DFW Office Momentum, Cold Storage Supply, Grocery Anchored Retail

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• Office: Dallas-Fort Worth Office Market: “Y’all Street” Momentum Holds Strong
• Industrial: In-Place Chicago Cold Storage Rents Lag 21% Behind National In-Place Average as New Supply Floods Market
• Retail: Shrinking Lease Terms Haven’t Deterred Institutional Appetite for South Florida’s Grocery-Anchored Retail

Economic Updates

The Impact of Tariffs:

• The Port of Los Angeles remained the nation’s busiest in August, following a record-breaking July with 1,019,837 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Meanwhile, the Port of Savannah recorded its third-busiest month ever in August, handling more than 534,000 TEUs—a 9% increase year-over-year;
• Imports from China declined monthly from January through June 2025 but ticked up slightly in July but remain at levels near early pandemic lows in a continued sign that steeper tariffs are putting downward pressure on imports and shipping activity.

State of the Economy and Recession Risk:

• Job openings declined across the board in July and the number of unemployed rose. Office-using employment dropped 3.2% from June and 3.0% year over year while other private sector openings fell 1.6% monthly and 2.7% annually. Overall, unemployment rose 3.2% from June and was 2.0% higher than a year ago;
• The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by a quarter point in September to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, the first time in 2025, and in line with expectations. The next Federal Open Markets Committee meets next October 28-29.

Ongoing concerns about inflation and consumer confidence:

• Consumer Sentiment slipped slightly in October to 55.0, indicating very little recent change in consumer’s perception from the previous month despite the ongoing federal government shutdown but consumer sentiment remains significantly lower than one year ago;
• The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Chain-Type Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, increased to 2.7% in the 12 months through August in the first rise since June;
• The Producer Price Index for nonresidential construction inputs rose for the eighth straight month in August 2025, reaching 166.2—up from 165.8 in July and 163.4 a year earlier—as tariffs continue to push material costs higher.

https://infogram.com/compstak-economic-update102325-1h984wvl8odmd2p

Office: Dallas-Fort Worth Office Market: “Y’all Street” Momentum Holds Strong

The Dallas–Fort Worth office market continued to gain traction in Q3, according to Bisnow, led by major leases and renewals from financial services firms, helping cement the area’s nickname “Y’all Street.” Trophy and Class A properties dominated activity, with asking rents at record highs and availability rates declining even as new construction remains limited and mostly preleased. Class B space also showed early signs of stabilization.

CompStak data reflects similar momentum for the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and in some cases, even stronger performance than other major markets. Estimated market rents for office space in both Class A and Class B/C properties are well above current in-place rents, suggesting room for further rent growth. All six Dallas–Fort Worth submarkets/ building classes ranked within the top ten nationally for the largest spreads between market and in-place rents in CompStak’s Gateway Office Market Report.

Prime Class A effective rents have risen 104% since mid-2020, compared with 44% growth across the rest of Class A and 42% in Class B/C properties. Meanwhile, the FIRE sector’s share of new leasing activity reached 36.7% year-to-date in 2025, one of the highest levels in CompStak’s data since 2019.

Industrial: In-Place Chicago Cold Storage Rents Lag 21% Behind National In-Place Average as New Supply Floods Market

The cold storage sector is experiencing significant market pressures as new supply outpaces demand, pushing vacancy rates to their highest levels in two decades, according to a recent Newmark report. GlobeSt. reports that while newer facilities consistently command premium rents, $12.65 per square foot nationwide versus $12.23 for older buildings, according to CompStak data, many of these modern, more efficient build-to-suit or speculative warehouses are now staying empty longer. The rental rates being paid by current tenants in Chicago remain approximately 21% below the national average ($9.97 for newer facilities versus $9.68 for older ones in Chicago, per CompStak data). Meanwhile, the Chicago market ranks among the markets with the highest construction activity at 15% of current inventory, according to the Newmark report. This aggressive supply pipeline is putting pressure on asking rents and absorption across many markets, as older facilities struggle to compete with better-equipped newer properties. As new supply continues to flood the market, the cold storage sector faces a pivotal moment where modern, well-located facilities are better positioned to attract tenants and sustain rental growth amid rising vacancy pressures. 

Retail: Shrinking Lease Terms Haven’t Deterred Institutional Appetite for South Florida’s Grocery-Anchored Retail

CompStak data shows that the average lease term length for both grocery-anchored and non-grocery-anchored retail in Southwest Florida and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale is declining, yet Asana Partners’ recent $62.1 million acquisition of the grocery-anchored Red Bird Center near Coral Gables was cited as strategic due to an above-average lease term length in place, per Commercial Observer. In addition, active retail tenants in grocery-anchored retail centers have lower in-place rents at $24.40 per square foot versus $29.82 for non-grocery-anchored centers, according to CompStak data. Average lease term length has diminished substantially, with grocery-anchored average lease term length down from 136.5 months in 2020 to 84.2 months in 2025, while the term for non-grocery properties fell from 123.8 months in 2019 to 69.4 months in 2025 per CompStak. Despite these trends, the highest-rent grocery-anchored retail transactions inked in 2025 show notable outperformers: specialized concepts like Heyday Cookshop and established tenants like PNC Bank have starting rents between $45 and $60 per square foot in Publix-anchored centers, more than double the 2025 South Florida average for grocery-anchored properties, according to CompStak data. Despite compressed lease terms and lower average rents, the Red Bird acquisition and similar institutional investments by Bain Capital and Publix itself demonstrate that grocery-anchored retail remains highly coveted for its tenant credit quality and recession-resistant fundamentals.