Help us direct you to the right place to sign up
SKIP AHEAD TO
Economic Updates
Tariffs and Trade:
- Year-to-date imports through February are down 13.3% year over year, with February marking the seventh straight monthly decline;
- At the end of 2025, major U.S. ports saw a slowdown in imports, with Los Angeles handling roughly 782,000 TEUs, Long Beach 818,000, and New York/New Jersey 730,000, with the West Coast ports below December 2024 levels while New York/New Jersey remained slightly higher.
Labor Market Conditions:
- In March 2026, weekly initial jobless claims averaged around 208,000, down from February’s 214,000 and below March 2025’s 223,000, pointing to a steady labor market;
- Unemployment fell for the second consecutive month to 7.2 million in March, while mixed payroll trends suggest the labor market remains resilient but shows early signs of cooling.
Consumer Sentiment and Inflation:
- According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.4% in March, while the three-year outlook edged up to 3.1%;
- The consumer sentiment index fell for a second straight month to 53.3 in March, reversing earlier gains and remaining near recent lows.
State of the Economy and Recession Risk:
- Q4 2025 GDP rose just 0.7%, down from 4.4% in Q3 and 3.4% a year earlier, showing a clear slowdown after strong growth;
Retail sales dipped 0.3% month-over-month in January and only modestly rebounded in February, pointing to cautious consumer spending early in the year.
Retail: Single Tenant Net Lease Retail Rent Escalations Rise, But Still Trail Inflation
Net lease retail is entering a new phase, with recent reporting highlighting a shift away from flat rent structures toward more frequent use of escalation clauses as landlords seek to protect income in an inflationary environment. This trend reflects a broader effort to build rent growth directly into lease terms rather than relying solely on market resets at renewal.
CompStak data shows a similar directional shift. Average annualized rent escalations for single-tenant net lease retail have trended upward over the past seven quarters, rising approximately 45 basis points since late 2021. However, despite this increase, escalation rates have consistently remained below inflation over the same period, indicating that while lease structures are evolving, they have not fully kept pace with broader cost pressures.
Retail: Long-term, High-Rent High-Street Retail Leases at Odds with NYC Rent Stabilization Proposal
A recent Bisnow article highlights renewed debate around commercial rent stabilization in New York City, as policymakers consider standardized lease terms and capped rent increases for retail spaces. Still, landlords question its viability and necessity, citing the complexity of retail leasing. CompStak data suggests that while rents in prime corridors are elevated, lease structures are already heavily weighted toward long-term agreements, with roughly 50% of Manhattan’s active high-street retail leases and 56% of active non-high-street leases exceeding 10 years. Average rents also vary significantly by location and lease term, with high-street leases over 10 years averaging $450 per square foot compared to $152 per square foot on non-high streets, according to CompStak data. This variation underscores landlords’ argument that retail rents are closely tied to tenant performance and location dynamics, making standardized rent regulations difficult to implement across the market, as noted in the Bisnow article.
Office: Miami Office Leasing Growth Driven More by Local Expansions Than New Market Entrants
A recent The Real Deal article points to renewed excitement around Miami’s office market, particularly the narrative of companies relocating to South Florida. However, CompStak data suggests that much of the post-COVID momentum to date is being driven internally rather than by a wave of new entrants. Just 11.7% of the top new and expansion leases since 2020 came from companies entering the Miami market for the first time, while 88% were signed by tenants already operating in the region.
This trend is reflected in how deals are structured. Approximately 65% of top leases were expansions within the Miami market, compared to just 23% relocations (though more than half of the relocations were also expansions from prior offices) and a small share belonging to true new-to-Miami market entries. Even among companies headquartered outside of Miami, leasing activity often reflects incremental growth rather than full relocations, with only about 5% of deals tied to establishing a new headquarters. Together, the data suggest Miami’s leasing strength is driven less by inbound migration and more by existing tenants expanding their footprint in the market. Future momentum may show more moves from out-of-state firms to the Miami market.
Industrial: Newer, High-Ceiling Industrial Warehouses Have Higher Potential Near-Term Rent Growth Across All Size Segments
According to NAIOP, the industrial sector is increasingly rewarding building quality and operational readiness over the total quantity of space delivered, as developers and tenants prioritize automation, power availability, and efficiency in new builds. CompStak data indicates that today’s market rents for newer, high-clearance industrial properties outpace in-place rents, with bulk buildings of 300,000 square feet or larger buildings built in 2010 or later, with ceilings of 28 feet or higher, averaging market rents that are 28.1% above in-place rents, which exceeds the spread for older, lower-clearance properties by 394 basis points. Smaller properties also show higher potential rent growth over older, lower-ceiling height buildings, with 0–99K SF, 100–199K SF, and 200–299K SF units averaging market rents that are 8.9%, 17.4%, and 20.8% above in-place rents, respectively. These trends underscore a decisive “flight to quality,” suggesting that tenants are willing to pay a premium for buildings that meet modern automation and operational requirements, and developers can capture higher rent growth by focusing on these segments.
