CompStak’s 2025 Biannual Industrial Report Signals a Market Reset as Rents Decline, Vacancy Rises, and Tenant Leverage Expands

New data shows industrial rents down from peak, a looming lease expiration wave, and private equity emerging as the dominant small-bay buyer

New York, NY — [January 26, 2026] — CompStak, the leading provider of crowdsourced commercial real estate data, today released its 2025 Biannual Industrial Market Overview, revealing a broad reset underway in the U.S. industrial real estate market. After years of rapid post-pandemic growth, the sector is entering a period defined by moderating rents, rising vacancy, expanding concessions, and shifting capital dynamics.

According to the report, the CompStak Industrial Rent Index has declined 4.7% from its late-2023 peak, marking three consecutive quarters of rent softening across major U.S. industrial markets. While rents remain nearly 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels, recent trends signal a meaningful pricing correction as supply increases and tenant leverage improves

A Lease Expiration Wave Is Set to Reshape Pricing

More than 31% of industrial leases across major U.S. markets are set to expire by the end of 2027, with many tenants currently paying well below today’s market rents. The gap between in-place rents and current market pricing remains especially wide in markets such as Dallas–Fort Worth and North and Central New Jersey, creating significant repricing potential over the next two years — even as headline rents soften

Vacancy Accelerates as the Market Normalizes

Industrial vacancy continued to rise throughout 2025, increasing at a faster year-over-year pace than in 2024. Data from NCREIF shows vacancy climbing by approximately 1.4 to 1.5 percentage points year over year each quarter in 2025, reflecting a normalization from historically tight conditions seen in 2021 and 2022

Tenant Leverage Expands Through Concessions and Shorter Escalations

Tenant leverage increased meaningfully in 2025 as concessions expanded across both bulk and small-bay assets. Free rent periods reached new post-2019 highs, accounting for 4.3% of lease terms in bulk buildings and 3.2% in small-bay properties. At the same time, annual rent escalations declined most sharply for short-term leases, particularly in small-bay buildings, as tenants pushed for flexibility amid economic and policy uncertainty

Private Equity Emerges as the Dominant Small-Bay Buyer

The report also highlights a significant shift in capital composition. In 2025, private equity firms more than doubled their share of small-bay industrial acquisitions, increasing from 31.0% of square footage purchased in 2024 to 63.3% in 2025. Meanwhile, listed REITs and traditional investment managers pulled back, reflecting more conservative return thresholds during the reset phase of the cycle

Trade, Ports, and Logistics Signal a Cautious but Expanding Backdrop

Macro indicators paint a mixed but stabilizing picture. U.S. port activity slowed in 2025, with East Coast ports maintaining a modest advantage over the West Coast as elevated tariffs and weaker China trade weighed on import volumes. Despite rising inventory costs, the Logistics Managers’ Index remained in expansion territory, supporting continued — though selective — demand for industrial and warehouse space heading into 2026

Single-Tenant Net Lease Industrial Remains a Bright Spot

One area of relative strength continues to be single-tenant net lease (STNL) industrial, where starting rents are more than 94% higher than in 2019, significantly outperforming the broader industrial market. Positive spreads between in-place and market rents across most markets suggest ongoing upside potential for this segment, even amid broader softening

About the Report

CompStak’s 2025 Biannual Industrial Market Overview analyzes leasing, sales, rent, vacancy, and capital trends across eight major U.S. industrial markets: Los Angeles–OC–Inland Empire, Atlanta, Phoenix, Chicago Metro, North and Central New Jersey, Philadelphia–Central PA–DE–South NJ, Houston, and Dallas–Fort Worth. The report is based on CompStak’s proprietary, crowdsourced transaction data combined with public economic indicators.

Click here to download the full report.

About CompStak
CompStak is the leading platform for commercial real estate data, providing thousands of brokers, investors, and asset managers with access to granular lease and sale comps, property details, and market analytics. Learn more at www.compstak.com.

Media Contact:
Brigette Palombo

marketing@compstak.com