2025 Biannual Industrial Market Report: Part Three

CompStak analyzed eight major U.S. industrial markets and billions of square feet of lease and sale data. The latest data shows the industrial sector entering its most meaningful reset since the pandemic boom. Check out the full insights in the 2025 Biannual Industrial Market Report.

U.S. Imports from China Still Depressed as Tariffs Remain Elevated

Imports from China declined each month from January through June 2025, rose slightly in July, and fell again in August and September. Year-to-date imports total $242 billion—down 24.7% from last year.
Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods peaked in April–May 2025 at 127%–135% before easing. As of November 2025, the average tariff rate, now applied to nearly all imports from China, remains elevated at about 47%, more than double the level in place when Trump took office.
Tariffs have produced mixed effects on imports due to stockpiling and shifting policy, but persistently high rates are expected to weigh further on volumes into 2026. West Coast ports and U.S. manufacturers reliant on Chinese components are likely to feel the greatest impact.

U.S. Imports of Goods Dropped to New Low Ahead of 2025 Holiday Season

New 2025 tariffs are showing an impact on trade, with total imports (goods and services) now down both month-over-month and year-over-year to $340B through August 2025’s data. Goods imports alone posted the sharpest annual decline since October 2023. While further softening is expected in the coming months, 2025 year-to-date totals through August remain elevated due to early front-loading to avoid incoming tariffs.

Nearly One-Third of Industrial Leases Expire by 2027, With Most Markets Showing a Meaningful Gap Between In-Place and Current Market Rents

Between Q1 2026 and the end of 2027, more than 31% of currently leased industrial square footage across major U.S. markets is set to expire. Most markets continue to show a notable spread between what expiring space could command at today’s market rents and what tenants are currently paying. Dallas Fort Worth and North and Central New Jersey stand out, with market rents roughly 42% and 40% above in-place rents for these expirations, while Greater Los Angeles shows a much narrower gap of just 2.3%.

Differences across markets are partly explained by the timing of lease execution. In Greater Los Angeles, the largest share of expiring leases by square footage was executed in 2024, near the peak of the last rental cycle. By contrast, markets such as Phoenix and Dallas–Fort Worth saw a greater concentration of expiring leases executed earlier, in 2022 and 2021, respectively, when rents were not yet at peak. As a result, despite recent moderation in rent growth, landlords in several markets may retain meaningful upside as this wave of lease expirations approaches.

Check out the full insights in the 2025 Biannual Industrial Market Report.