2025 Biannual Industrial Market Report: Part One

CompStak analyzed eight major U.S. industrial markets and billions of square feet of lease and sale data. The latest data shows the industrial sector entering its most meaningful reset since the pandemic boom. Check out the full insights in the 2025 Biannual Industrial Market Report.

Major U.S. Industrial Markets

• Industrial rents continue to reset from their post-pandemic peak, with the CompStak Industrial Rent Index down 4.7% from late 2023 after three consecutive quarterly declines.
• U.S. port volumes slowed in 2025, with East Coast ports maintaining a slight edge over the West, as elevated tariffs and weaker China trade weighed more heavily on West Coast activity.
• Consumer spending improved across durable and goods-heavy categories in 2025, reinforcing underlying demand for industrial space tied to distribution, e-commerce, and retail supply chains despite broader economic uncertainty.

• More than 31% of industrial leases expire by 2027, with many tenants still paying well below current market rents, creating meaningful repricing still likely across most major U.S. markets.
• Small-bay industrial buyer composition shifted meaningfully in 2025, with private equity posting the largest year-over-year gains in both share of square footage and sales volume as listed REITs and traditional investment managers revealed a decline.
• Tenant leverage increased in 2025 as concessions expanded, with free rent periods reaching new post-2019 highs and annual escalation rates falling most sharply for short-term and small-bay leases.

U.S. Manufacturing Job Losses Persist Despite Reshoring Efforts, While Transportation & Warehousing Employment Holds More Steady

In the second and third quarters of 2025, employment in manufacturing and transportation exhibited contrasting trends. Manufacturing declined 0.4% year-to-date and was down 0.7% compared to September 2024, with the rate of decline slightly accelerating. Transportation and warehousing posted 0.5% year-to-date drop, but remained 0.6% higher than September 2024, signaling a muted but still positive year-over-year trend. While both sectors have experienced recent quarterly declines, their trajectories differ: manufacturing has shifted from relative stability in early 2024 to consistent decline, while transportation experienced a decline from its mid-2022 peak through mid-2023 but has since recovered, with employment now above mid-2022 levels despite the recent quarterly declines and Q3 2025 acceleration in the rate of decline. Despite ongoing weakness in both sectors, transportation maintains year-over-year gains while manufacturing has fallen below prior-year levels. The data suggest a cautious outlook for industrial employment heading into 2026.

Container Traffic Growth Slows at Major U.S. Ports., With East Coast Holding a Modest Advantage Over West in 2025

In the third quarter of 2025, U.S. port TEU volumes showed mixed trends across individual ports and coasts. Comparing Q3 2025 with Q3 2024, East Coast ports handled 6,437,924 TEUs, up 0.9% year over year, while West Coast ports processed 6,079,262 TEUs, a 0.5% increase, reflecting a slowdown compared with the higher year-over-year growth for total activity through September between 2023 and 2024. Among major ports, New York/New Jersey (+0.9%), Savannah (+2.5%), Charleston (+2.2%), and Virginia (+1.9%) contributed to East Coast gains, though Houston (-8.8%) experienced a notable decline. On the West Coast, Los Angeles (+0.4%) and Long Beach (+0.3%) increased just slightly from 2024 year-to-date activity, while Oakland (-6.8%) recorded the largest decrease. Overall, the data suggest a deceleration in growth momentum for both coasts, with East Coast ports maintaining a slight edge over the West.

Check out the full insights in the 2025 Biannual Industrial Market Report.