Below Market: Sublease Pricing and Rollover Risk Across U.S. Office

Download Below Market: Sublease Pricing and Rollover Risk Across U.S. Office

Sublease supply is down more than a third from its 2023 peak. The headline shows progress to recovery. The comp data behind what got subleased and absorbed is more complicated.

Active subleases signed in 2024 carry the steepest discount of any post-COVID vintage. And 31% of space expiring through 2028 faces repricing headwinds that haven’t fully materialized yet.

CompStak breaks down where the pressure is concentrated, which markets carry the most rollover risk, and what the pipeline looks like through 2030, all built on verified lease comp data.

Key insights include:

• ~33% / Active subleases signed in 2024 average roughly 33% below the underlying direct lease rent. That’s the most aggressive discounting of any post-COVID signing year, reflecting the clearing price at peak sublease supply.
• 31% / More than 31% of sublease space expiring between 2026 and 2028 has in-place rents above today’s direct market levels. Another 14% reflects tenant stress. Only 21.5% of that pipeline is broadly stable.
• 11.2% / At the 2024 peak, sublessees received 11.2% of lease term as free rent. Sublessors on those same deals received 2.8%. Direct market deals sat at 6.5%. The spread tells you how aggressively space had to be priced to clear.