Exploring the U.S. Cities with the Fastest YoY Rent Growth in CRE

Explore the cities with the highest YoY effective rent growth and how CRE lenders can use these insights for smarter lending decisions.

In today’s commercial real estate landscape, data is everywhere. But not all data is created equal—what really matters is having access to actionable, quality insights that can guide better decision-making. That’s the focus of our CRE Market Movers series, developed in partnership with Blooma. In this series, we break down critical market trends and provide CRE lenders with insights that are not only data-driven but also practical and impactful.

In our last post, we explored the Top 10 Tenants Returning the Highest Rent in Industrial Real Estate, giving lenders a look into which tenants are driving up rents and shaping leasing trends. This time, we’re taking a closer look at Year-Over-Year (YoY) Effective Rent Growth across top industrial markets. Understanding which cities are seeing the most significant rent growth—and why—can help lenders better assess risk, identify opportunities, and make more strategic lending decisions.

Let’s dive into the data and see which cities are leading the way in rent growth and how this trend can inform smarter lending strategies.

Across eight major industrial markets nationwide, Dallas-Fort Worth and Phoenix have shown the most significant year-over-year increases in effective rents. However, the Los Angeles-OC-Inland Empire market has recently experienced a reset, with effective rents beginning to decline. Despite this, Los Angeles-OC-Inland Empire remains the leader in rent growth since Q1 2020.

Here’s a breakdown of the year over year changes:

Ranked for YoY Change from Greatest to Lowest

Ranked for Change from Q1 2020 to Q1 2024 from Greatest to Lowest

The Why: Assessing Market Risk and Opportunity with CompStak

Identifying cities with high YoY effective rent growth allows CRE lenders to evaluate the risk and potential of lending in these markets. Rapid rent growth can signal strong demand but may also indicate the presence of speculative bubbles, increasing the risk of defaults or market corrections.

Understanding these trends is crucial for lenders to navigate potential risks and seize investment opportunities. CompStak provides CRE lenders with valuable insights into market performance, boosting their ability to evaluate risks and identify potential investments.

With CompStak, you can gain: 

• Reliable Data Insights: Access comprehensive lease and sale comps, along with detailed analytics on effective rent growth across major markets. Understand how cities like Dallas-Fort Worth and Phoenix are leading the way in year-over-year rent increases, while tracking the recent declines in markets such as Los Angeles-OC-Inland Empire.
• Market Trend Analysis: Dive into in-depth analysis of rent growth trends to uncover emerging opportunities and assess potential risks. CompStak’s data helps you evaluate which markets are experiencing robust growth and which markets are slowing down, enabling informed decision-making.
• Competitive Edge: Leverage accurate and up-to-date CRE data to stay ahead of market shifts. With insights into both current and historical rent growth, you can better predict future trends and make strategic lending decisions.

How Blooma Enhances Risk Assessment and Decision-Making

Blooma’s discounted cash flow (DCF) model helps investors evaluate and compare investment opportunities by detailing a property’s potential risks and returns and factoring in the opportunity cost of capital. Compared to a basic one-year cash flow analysis, the DCF model offers a more comprehensive view of a commercial real estate asset’s financial performance. While a static analysis focuses only on short-term performance, the DCF approach considers projected cash flows throughout the entire investment period, including anticipated sale proceeds at the end.

In Blooma, lenders can use CompStak data to Identify markets with high year-over-year (YoY) rent growth. This enables lenders to complete a more precise discounted cash flow (DCF) model and make well-informed decisions about the risks involved in lending in those markets. Here’s how:

1. Enhancing Cash Flow Projections: High YoY rent growth suggests a strong demand for rental properties, which can lead to higher projected rental income. This optimistic cash flow outlook can improve the estimated value of the property in the DCF model. Accurate projections of future cash flows are crucial for a reliable valuation and loan assessment.
2. Assessing Market Strength: Rapid rent increases indicate a robust market, potentially enhancing the property’s income stability. Lenders may view such markets as more favorable, assuming the demand will continue to support high rental rates, thereby reducing the risk of income shortfalls.
3. Understanding Risk of Market Downturns: In rapidly rising rent environments, there’s a risk that rental growth may not be sustainable long-term. Lenders need to evaluate whether high rent growth might lead to potential market downturns or increased vacancy rates if the rental market overheats.
4. Adjusting Risk Premiums: If high rent growth is accompanied by signs of market volatility, lenders might adjust their risk premiums or underwriting criteria to account for the increased potential for fluctuations in cash flow or property values.

By incorporating high YoY rent growth into the DCF model, lenders can better forecast future cash flows and adjust their risk assessments accordingly. This helps balance the potential rewards of lending in a high-growth market with the risks of potential market corrections or economic shifts.

A reliable discounted cash flow (DCF) model relies on accurate data, including leases and market-specific assumptions such as vacancy rates, market rent growth, and inflation. By integrating CompStak comp data into Blooma, clients can enhance their DCF analysis with detailed revenue data. Blooma uses this data to automatically generate DCF models for each cash flow scenario created in the system. These models project six years of cash flow scenarios, including revenue, vacancy and concessions, other income, operating expenses, fixed charges, and net operating income. The model calculates the final sale value and the present value of the property using a DCF cap rate.

Each DCF cash flow scenario in Blooma is generated with preset discount rates, revenue growth percentages, and expense growth percentages. These models can be used as-is or customized to fit the lender’s specific needs by adjusting these parameters for more precise insights.

Blooma streamlines the DCF modeling process by automating data entry, assumption building, and sensitivity analysis. This automation saves time, reduces errors, and ensures a more reliable result. By combining high-quality CompStak data with Blooma’s advanced analytical tools, commercial real estate lenders can create highly accurate DCF models, enhancing their success in a competitive market.

CompStak comp data is automatically pulled in the Blooma system as soon as a deal is created. Comp information will include details on how much similar properties are renting for in the area.

CompStak comp data is averaged out to $/SF and applied to the subject properties unit mix to calculate market rent comp revenue. Rent comp revenue can be used as a revenue source in any cash flow scenario.

Here you can see the CompStak rent comp revenue in a cash flow scenario. Then, the client can select the “VIEW DCF” button to see the full DCF model.

Here is a full snapshot of the discounted cash flow model. The client can edit the discount rate, revenue growth % rate, and expense growth % rate at the top or leave the as-is figures to model out all 6 years.

Making Informed Decisions with CompStak and Blooma

By combining CompStak’s robust data with Blooma’s advanced analytical tools, CRE lenders can navigate market uncertainties with confidence. Whether you’re assessing risk or identifying new opportunities, the synergy between CompStak and Blooma provides the insights needed to stay ahead in a dynamic market.

Explore our latest video to delve deeper into these insights and discover how you can leverage this data to optimize your lending strategies.

Stay tuned for more insights in our upcoming videos in the CRE Market Movers series!

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