CompStat: E-Commerce Rising, Finance Leasing in Manhattan, Industrial Sales Strength, and Amazon Industrial Uptick

E-commerce reached the highest share of total retail sales since peaking in Q2 2020, clocking in at 15.9% in Q1 2024

Among other latest economic updates:

• CPI was flat month-over-month in May, rising 3.3% year-on-year;
• The Fed held interest rates at a 23-year high at their June 12 meeting despite a slight easing in the latest CPI reading, suggesting one rate cut in 2024;
• The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell a further 3.5 index points in June from May amid persistent inflationary pressure;
• The number of paid full days working from home has declined over the past four years, measuring 27.6% in 2024, with May 2024’s reading showing the lowest share since pre-COVID at 26.6%;
• Warehousing utilization increased by 9.4 points in May compared to April and is 9.3 points higher than a year ago, showing an expanding rate of space utilization reported by logistics managers.

Amazon Expanded Its Industrial Footprint In The Phoenix Market With The Addition Of Millions Of Square Feet In The First Quarter Of 2024

According to a Phoenix Business Journal article, Amazon’s recently signed lease for 1.20 million square feet in The Cubes at Glendale Industrial Park is one of the largest industrial leases completed in the area since 2022. This lease, together with an even larger 1.22-million-square foot deal signed by the e-commerce giant in the West Phoenix submarket days later at 4780 North Cotton Lane, according to CompStak’s data is the latest indication of an apparent uptick in Amazon leasing activity. From 2019 to 2023, Amazon accounted for 4.8% of the total industrial leases (by square footage) completed in the Phoenix market in CompStak’s data. This share jumped in Q1 2024, with Amazon accounting for 68.2% of the total industrial square footage leased that quarter in this market.

Industrial Sector is a Bright Spot for CRE Investment Sales as CompStak Data Shows Quarterly Uptick

The continued strength of industrial property is helping to slow the overall decline in commercial sales prices, according to a new MSCI report, which also found Central Business District office pricing dropped 33.9% year over year. According to CompStak data, the average national industrial sales prices per square foot rose 7.4% from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, increasing from $122.48 to $131.56 per square foot. Not surprisingly, some of the highest Q1 2024 prices per square foot were in the Los Angeles-Orange-Inland market and included acquisitions by Union Pacific Railroad, CenterPoint Properties, and Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc.

Despite a Decline in Total Office Leasing by FIRE in Manhattan, Its Proportion of Overall Activity Remained Steady or Increased Post-Pandemic

According to a recent Commercial Observer article, FIRE Tenants Are Not Spreading as Much in Manhattan, CompStak’s data revealed a decline in the total square footage leased by FIRE (Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate) tenants compared to pre-pandemic levels. Despite this drop, FIRE is accounting for a higher share of activity, as other sectors like tech have pulled back. From 2017 to 2020, FIRE’s share averaged 29.1% but rose to a 39.1% average from 2020 to 2023. In Q1 2024, FIRE accounted for more than 36% of all leases by square footage in Manhattan, indicating that the trend is ongoing.

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